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Energy crisis -- Is the current civilization coming to an end?
المفتش كولومبو غير متصل
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المشاركات: 622
الانضمام: Apr 2003
مشاركة: #6
Energy crisis -- Is the current civilization coming to an end?
Thank you Zeiad to comment. Please be patint with me.

My comment
The aim of the opening this discussion is what the so called "Arab World" is planning to do? Is there any sort of research for alternative energy sources any where in any Arab country? What kind of measures are we taking to ensure our survival? The answer - as far as I know till now - is no to all the previous question.

Take Egypt as an example (the one country I have more info about). BP estimates the electricity production of 2004 as 97.70 TWh.

Now, we have no nuclear reactors in Egypt (or any where else in the "Arab countries"). All of this electricity is produced by burning oil, natural gas, and coal. Our wind and solar projects are so small (in 2003 it was 0.3 % of our total electricity production) and can be considered in the test phase (not like Denmark for example which was 18.4 % in the same year)

Now, with an average of 5 years to build a nuclear reactor compound, and with our current consumption rate you do the math to calculate how many years - and money - we need to replace our oil/gas stations. The question would be, do we have a strong economy that can pay the energy bill (whether in Egypt or in any other "Arab country") ?

I'm not sure how many reactors are in the EU, or how much electricity they produce, but what I know is that the EU governments (except the UK) are closing them!!!

The US has 19.6 % (2005) of it is produced electricity is coming from nuclear reactors while the rest is coming from burning oil, gas, and coal. It is to be said that the US didn't build any new reactors since the end of the 70's but now the Bush administration is pushing hard for it. He is asking congress and energy companies to start studying building new reactors ASAP.

The Real Danger

Europe
Europe energy problem is much bigger and serious than that of the US. 1st of all, the US is an oil producer country while in the oil in Europe is limited to some spots in the northern sea.

Now you till me what Europe would do in 2020 for example?

China
China's population is 1.3 billion in 2004 where some suggest they are now over 1.5 billion.

They produced in 2004 a total of 2187 TWh of electricity and consumed 1671.23 TWh in 2003. Their nuclear energy account for 2.3 (2003) % of total electricity produced. The rest is coming from Oil, Gas, and coal.

Their economy is growing by 9.9 (2005) so is their energy need.

Now you translate the above percentages to numbers and you can start having nightmares about any increase in their economy growth or population.

India
India isn't a big different than China. Their population is less (about 1.1 billion). They produced 650.83 TWh of electricity in 2004 of which around 2.9 % was nuclear.

Their economy is growing by 6.9% (2004) and consumed 15734 EJ in the same year.

Translate these numbers to barrel of oil/metric tons of gas and you get the picture of tomorrow

Finally, What I want to say is that we really need to start educating people about how serious the situation really is. We need to tell them how will it be in 20~30 years for the sake of our children.

References
http://www.iaea.org/inis/aws/eedrb/data/EG.html
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factb...ok/geos/eg.html
http://www.worldbank.org/
05-31-2006, 08:39 PM
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Energy crisis -- Is the current civilization coming to an end? - بواسطة المفتش كولومبو - 05-31-2006, 08:39 PM

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