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http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index....amble.html

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The roots of the policy shift go back to Obama's first days in office and his feeling that America's relationship with the Arab world was broken. Though Obama seemed to be accommodating the region's authoritarian leaders, in August 2010, he issued Presidential Study Directive 11, asking agencies to prepare for change.

This document cited "evidence of growing citizen discontent with the region's regimes" and warned that "the region is entering a critical period of transition." The president asked his advisers to "manage these risks by demonstrating to the people of the Middle East and North Africa the gradual but real prospect of greater political openness and improved governance."

Six months later, street demonstrations were toppling autocratic leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, who looked in vain for support from Washington. Obama didn't come to the autocrats' rescue because he believed the transformations were positive developments. "We have a core interest in stability through political and economic change. The status quo is not stable," explains Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser.

The democratic youth movement sweeping the Arab world offered an "alternative narrative" to the versions of Islamic revolution put forward by Iran and al-Qaeda, says Rhodes. If this change scenario can succeed, threats to America will be reduced.
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شخصيا اعتقد ان تقراير الاستخبارات الاجنبية قد رصدت حالت الاحتقان السائدة في المنطقة و حذرت من اضطرابات او احتجاجات ضخمة في اكثر من بلد عربي, و بذات مصر.
ربما كانت المفاجأة في درجة حسم هذه الثورات الجماهيرية و ضعف الانظمة البالغ امامها. لكن تخيل الصدمة و عجز الادارة الامريكية عن التعامل معها امر مبالغ فيه.